The companies responsible for most new electric vehicle registrations have warned the Government that a failure to support the used market will stop the zero-emission transition in its tracks. Writing to the Transport, Environmental Audit and Business Select Committees, signatories are calling for measures that support household and SME access to electric vehicles, and mitigate the volatile residual values denting market confidence.
Coordinated by the BVRLA and signed by The AFP and a host of fleet operators members, vehicle rental and leasing companies, and trade bodies, the letter calls for support on behalf of the full electric vehicle ecosystem. Signatories represent vehicle demand across private and business customers, encompassing insurance, remarketing, and servicing too.
Registrations of new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are on an upward trajectory, led by the fleet and leasing sectors and pushed by the Government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate. The size of the new market (≈2m annually[1]) is dwarfed by that of the used market (≈7m annually1), although current support measures focus entirely on pockets of new registrations. The terms of the Mandate increase the proportion of new car and van sales that are for zero-emission vehicles each year, with all those vehicles set to reach the used market in the months and years ahead.
While most new vehicles are bought by businesses, the majority of UK consumers only buy on the used market. Those buyers currently have no support to make the shift to BEVs, creating a chasm between supply, due to increase by 178% by 2028[2], and demand. This gap has put values of second-hand BEVs under pressure, seeing them fall 50% over the last two years and forecast to fall a further 28% by 2030[3]. This leaves the automotive supply chain to absorb the heavy financial impact of incentivising that demand.
The open letter to the Select Committees highlights that relying on the industry to shoulder that impact on a long-term basis is unsustainable and will see new vehicles become more expensive to access or limit supply. Without intervention, forecasts suggest the UK could lose out on 290,000 new EV registrations in the next two years[3]. Such an outcome would be at odds with the ambitious decarbonisation targets set by government and prevent progress from accelerating.
Signatories are calling on the Select Committees to urgently engage with this issue. Solutions suggested by industry include targeted grants, measures to mitigate the volatility that residual values are experiencing, and the introduction of clear and standardised battery health information.
Delivering the letter in Parliament today, BVRLA Chief Executive, Toby Poston said: “The used car market is nearly four times the size of the new one. Maintaining healthy demand and values for second-hand electric vehicles is essential if we want to deliver a sustained transition. A lack of government incentives or affordable public charging infrastructure means that too few used car buyers or dealers are seeing the benefit in going electric. As a result, used BEV supply is outstripping demand and prices are continuing to fall. This depreciation is costing fleets hundreds of millions and being passed on to new buyers in the form of higher motor finance costs.
“To restore confidence in the net zero transition and sustain a healthy electric vehicle ecosystem, the Government needs to intervene.”
The letter was delivered to members of the Transport, Environmental Audit and Business Select Committees on Thursday 3rd April and invites further dialogue with the automotive industry to develop a supportive used EV environment. Over 25 companies signed to underline their support, collectively representing the majority of electric cars and vans currently being bought and operated in the UK.
[1] SMMT data
[2] Cox Automotive data
[3] BVRLA report, “Assessing the impact of support for the used BEV market
Building stronger, more effective relationships with fleet customers is the aim of a new one-day course for motor manufacturers designed to provide insight into current fleet manager thinking.
The “Fleet Mindset Masterclass” has been developed by industry body, the Association of Fleet Professionals, in partnership with automotive sales, technology and marketing specialists ROI Automotive, who partner with 39 leading automotive brands.
The target audience for the course includes manufacturer corporate sales executives, sales managers and account managers who are looking to deepen their understanding of fleet and the complex range of challenges their fleet customers face.
Paul Hollick, chair at the AFP, said: “For us, the introduction of this training is a win-win. It combines the insight that ROI Automotive provides into the approach of manufacturers with the AFP’s awareness of current fleet manager concerns. It’s very much a bridge between the two bodies and their areas of expertise, sharing knowledge to the benefit of all involved.
“The result is a course that provides manufacturers with an enhanced understanding of what fleet managers are aiming to achieve in 2025 and beyond, and the pressures, complexities and challenges they face. This should in turn lead to those fleet managers receiving a higher level of service through greater understanding of their developing needs.
“A pilot of the course has already been held, and the feedback was very positive. We believe this is a strong addition to the now-extensive training portfolio we offer through the AFP Fleet Academy that will have appeal both to established manufacturers and new entrants.”
Nigel Sandiford, CEO at ROI Automotive, added: “Our automotive clients want to empower their teams to better support fleet managers but have found limited opportunities, so we have partnered with the AFP to create this unique course where they will gain a deeper understanding directly from fleet managers about what they need from suppliers. A day such as this – spending time refocusing on your customers – is invaluable.
“Delegates will develop a solid understanding of the landscape of today’s fleet management, uncovering how fleet decisions are made, how internal stakeholders are managed and how to develop a client proposition beyond just selling a product.
“This isn’t a commercial venture for us – we’ve simply helped make it happen for the benefit of fleet buyers and fleet suppliers.”
More details about the Fleet Mindset Masterclass are available by e-mailing [email protected] or calling 07598 686500.
GROWING PROFILE OF THE FLEET MANAGER IS THEME FOR AFP’S 2024 CONFERENCE
Wednesday 7th May has been announced as the date for this year’s annual conference of the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP), with a central theme of the growing profile of the fleet manager.
Taking place once again at The British Motor Museum, Gaydon, it is expected to attract around 250 members and will be sponsored by Enterprise Mobility and Ayvens.
The day will include sessions featuring expert speakers and panels covering salient topics including keeping your fleet compliant, driving change, data driven decisions, what’s new in legislation – and what’s coming over the next 18 months, and fleet roles for the future.
There will also be a keynote speech from the Office for Zero Emissions Vehicles and an AFP Academy awards ceremony celebrating members who have gained accreditations from the industry training body during the last year.
Paul Hollick, chair at the AFP, said: “This is our fourth conference since the merger of ACFO and the ICFM, and the event has become widely recognised as one of the highlights of the fleet industry calendar, tackling the issues of the moment in an informed and practical manner.
“This year we’re aiming to make the conference better than ever. Crucially, we’ll be recognising the increasing role of the fleet manager at this unprecedented moment of change for vehicle operators, showing how our members play an essential position in some of the most important aspects of corporate life.
“Also, we’d like to thank Enterprise Mobility and Ayvens for their sponsorship. Support of this kind is what makes events such as the AFP Conference possible, and we’re very grateful for their involvement.”
Registration for the conference, which is open to all AFP members, is now open and can be found at https://www.theafp.co.uk/the-afp-annual-conference-2025/.
Many fleets are unaware of additional Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) charges on electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that are due to take effect in April
Increases announced by the chancellor in the Budget last year are likely to have an impact on organisations that operate EVs and PHEVs, and some will see their liability on widely-adopted EVs rise per vehicle from zero to £2,490 over a five year period.
First year VED rates are being increased from zero to £10 for EVs and from zero to £110 for PHEVs emitting between 1-50g/km of CO2. Second year rates have risen more dramatically for EVs – from zero to £195.
Also, EVs that are registered from 1 April will now also become liable for additional rate VED for all vehicles costing more than £40,000, which will be £425 for each of the second to the fifth years of the car’s life.
James Pestell, AFP director, said: “The feedback we are receiving is that many fleets simply haven’t appreciated and accounted for these increases, which are substantial when applied across entire fleets operating dozens, hundreds or thousands of EVs and PHEVs.
“From April onwards, they’ll be receiving bills from the DVLA or shortfall invoices from their leasing supplier, and won’t have factored them into their running costs. That’s why we are flagging up this issue now.”
He added that taken together, the VED increases represented a major jump in costs for EVs.
“Electric cars costing over £40,000 bought after the start of April – including some of the most common models on fleets – that would have attracted no tax in 2024-25 will be liable for £2,490* during the first five years of their life. That’s a big increase.”
The AFP will be holding a Tax Year End webinar on Tuesday, 4th March at 10 am, featuring tax specialist Harvey Perkins of HRUX and mileage reimbursement expert Barry Monks of TMC. It will cover VED issues and more, including the P11D process, PHEV benefit-in-kind changes, double cab pick-ups, car allowance payments, what is a business mile, and CO2 tax changes from 2028. More details can be found at www.theafp.co.uk/events/tax-year-end-webinar.
*£10 VED in the first year, followed by four years of £195 VED and £425 of additional tax.
The Association of Fleet Operators (AFP) is calling for an official deferral for MOTs on 4.25 tonne electric vans as some fleets report finding tests “impossible” to book.
For MOT test purposes, this special category of vans is treated as a heavy goods vehicle (HGV), meaning that it has to be tested at one year old rather than three, and also faces a more rigorous examination.
Aaron Powell, fleet and logistics director at Speedy Hire is one AFP member being affected and reports that his company will have to potentially take a number of vehicles off the road.
“These 4.25 tonne vans require a Class 7 HGV MOT test and, between generally poor capacity for HGV testing and few test centres being able to handle electric vehicles, we’re finding it impossble on a practical level to book tests. Our lease provider has spent the last three months trying to find garages with the ability to carry out the pre-testing and source available slots for the test with limited success.
“This is going to have a serious impact on our business because we’re going to have to take these vans off the road and no doubt many other fleets are finding themselves in the same situation.”
Lorna McAtear, vice chair at the AFP, said: “As an organisation and at an individual member level, we’re very much focussed on safety and of course recognise the role that the MOT test plays in ensuring that vehicles operated by fleets are in a roadworthy condition.
“However, it’s questionable whether 4.25 tonne electric vans require HGV tests, an argument we have been making to government for some time. The whole point of this category of van when it was introduced in 2019 was to provide easy access for fleets to an electric equivalent of a 3.5 tonne panel van. These vehicles are simply 3.5 tonne vans with bigger batteries.
“The difficulties members are encountering around their inability to book MOT testing only emphasises this confusion. While the situation is being resolved, we would like to see government and the official bodies involved introduce some form of dispensation, similar to that created during the pandemic, allowing fleets to defer tests for a period of perhaps six or 12 months on 4.25 tonners for the first and second year of testing, giving them time to find and book testing facilities. It is disappointing that businesses working in good faith to electrify their light commercial vehicle operations are being affected in this manner.”
She added that despite a willingness on the part of government to try and overcome issues surrounding 4.25 tonne vans, problems remained.
“As a result of discussions between the Office for Zero Emissions, Driver Vehicle Standards Authority and Department for Transport, the operation of these vans on a practical level is often difficult for fleets due to confusion over whether they have been deregulated from all of the operator responsibilities that normally apply to vans over 3.5 tonnes.
“The government is aware of this and is trying to resolve the situation through the current consultation because there remains widespread belief that the 4.25 tonne concept remains worth pursuing as a means of speeding up van electrification. However, this process is taking time.”
A new service from the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP) that enables businesses to tap into the knowledge and skills of experienced fleet operators is being launched this week.
Called AFP Fleet Intelligence, it is designed to meet what the industry body describes as growing demand for fleet know-how, while providing a new channel for members to make their skills more widely available.
Paul Hollick, chair at the AFP, said: “For the first time, this service positions us as a provider of fleet expertise rather than a supporting body to fleet professionals, and we see it as a natural extention of our activities.
“We are increasingly approached by organisations looking for services of this kind, and Fleet Intelligence means we can matchmake those businesses with experienced AFP fleet operator members in a structured manner.
“The microsite lists the skills and experience of each consultant, enabling businesses to identify the right expert for their needs.”
He said AFP Fleet Intelligence could provide support when it came to strategies, products and services for anyone from start-ups to long established businesses.
“The service is open to all, be it a small business that needs a couple of hours of advice about an element of their fleet, through to a major service provider who wants to research the viability of a new product or service. The expertise we offer can meet just about any requirement of this type.”
The microsite can be found at www.theafp.co.uk/fleet-intelligence and the cost for consultancy is £100 per hour, £350 for a half day, and £700 for a full day. Experts initially listed include Chris Connors, Stuart Conway, Martin Edgecox, Debbie Floyde, Julie Madoui, Matt Neale, Elaine Pringle and Rob Simister.
The nine biggest issues facing fleets in 2025
By Paul Hollick, chair, AFP
Each year, the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP) produces a “State of the Nation” piece, highlighting the key issues that are facing vehicle operators right now. For 2025, we believe these are the nine most pressing, together with our ideas for tackling them.
1. Maintaining momentum in the electric car revolution
What has been achieved over the last few years in the electrification of company cars has been nothing short of spectacular. The default company car choice is now probably an electric vehicle (EV), and one that is probably being used with few or no operational compromises.
However, there are issues around electrification that need resolving. Many of these – such as the ZEV Mandate, better charging infrastructure and a better functioning used car sector – are detailed elsewhere in this article but two areas where we would like to see developments include greater availability of lower-cost EV options and filling in gaps around the types of models that are being brought to market.
Some progress looks as though it will be made in 2025, with a greater number of models arriving that are suitable for fleet use in the £20,000-£30,000 bracket, widening the appeal of EVs to more employees and bringing lower whole life costs. The second is more difficult, with an almost complete absence of electric pick-ups and offroad 4x4s, and few practical choices on the horizon. For some major fleets, such as utilities companies, this represents a genuine stumbling block to achieving zero emissions.
2. The future of the ZEV Mandate
The government consultation on the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate is now underway and there appears to be recognition at the highest level that the current strategy is placing too much pressure on manufacturers, creating a mismatch between supply and demand. This is especially the case in the van market, where electric sales are low and largely flatlining thanks to widespread doubt about the viability of these vehicles for everyday applications.
Most of the ideas we have seen reported in the press that are apparently being considered by the government – such as allowing hybrids to stay on sale until 2035 – probably don’t go far enough but we remain optimistic that genuine improvements can be identified. The changes made will influence the vehicle choices made by fleets for at least the next decade and the AFP is taking an active part in the consultation.
3. Rethinking zero emissions for vans
This is something of a simplification but the fleet industry reception to electric vans has been largely split between major fleets who have a corporate commitment to zero emissions and adopt them despite their potential shortcomings, and a much larger cohort who look at the perceived range and payload compromises, then decide to stay with diesel.
By 2027 – just two years away – the ZEV Mandate states that more than a third of van sales need to be zero emissions so clearly, something must change. Our thoughts on this are included in the Van Plan that we created in 2024 with the British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association and others. Essentially, a complete rethink is needed at a government level, including a solution to the long-running 4.25 tonne van issue.
Something that could potentially help is hydrogen. The first viable hydrogen van, from Vauxhall, goes on sale soon. It offers fast at-the-pump refuelling and a 300-mile range, but the van and the fuel are expensive, and there is almost no refuelling infrastructure. Again, government action is needed for this to become a viable choice for most.
4. Delivering on-street charging
We’re experiencing an odd moment for UK’s charging infrastructure. Last year, a record 20,000 public chargers were installed, bringing the national total to around 75,000. It’s a big increase. However, visit almost any part of the country and very few streets of terraced housing or apartments have any chargers. This absence of low cost, practical energy for anyone without the space to install their own charger is not just bad for fleets whose employees live there, but it practically locks individuals out of buying a new or used EV.
At the AFP, we have a long running project that is designed to show relevant parties – including fleets, local government and charging providers – where domestic demand for charging provision from vehicle operators is highest and this has met with some success. For 2025, we’re going to completely overhaul this national map with the aim of having a wider, faster impact in terms of accelerated charger availability. However, we’re only one element of the process and there simply needs to be more on-street charging available quickly.
5. Making shared charging a reality
In 2024, the AFP launched a new committee designed to promote shared charging between our members. Good progress has been made and we are commissioning an online platform that will enable fleets that have spare charging facilities to register while those who need charging will be able to search and book. It will also set prices and payment terms.
A key discussion point for the committee has been the price point of shared charging and general agreement has been reached that it should be a maximum of 40 pence per kWh. Also, there have been extensive discussions around how to gain access to charging sites, health and safety considerations, measuring charging use, and potential payment mechanisms.
Ultimately, shared charging isn’t going to be for everyone because of inevitable compromises – for example, the kind of provision on offer will almost certainly be geographically patchy – but as part of the ongoing journey to fleet electrification, it’s certainly a further step forward.
6. Controlling fleet spending
While inflation has fallen from the worrying rates seen in the last few years, fleet budgets remain under considerable pressure. Insurance premiums, for example, appear to have stabilised after rocketing but remain at historically high levels, uncomfortably so for many vehicle operators. Other unavoidable costs – from buying vehicles to lease rates to service, maintenance and repair have also noticeably increased.
There are no easy answers to any of these issues but many of the conversations happening among AFP members at the moment are based around identifying strategies that are successful in controlling costs and it does appear that for many, 2025 is going to be a year where much time is devoted to scrutinising spreadsheets, trying to work out where price rises can be contained. Being part of an organisation such as the AFP, with channels and forums where these problems and solutions can be shared, has genuine value.
7. Working towards a better used EV market
For fleets to electrify, a properly functioning used EV market is essential and at points in the last couple of years, there were times when it appeared that wasn’t happening, with huge falls in residual values (RVs) hitting leasing companies and anyone else who owned electric cars and vans.
Thankfully, the situation has now stabilised to a considerable extent with some commentators suggesting a good 2025 for used EVs but the fact is that RVs remain lower than anyone in the sector really likes, and one of the key conversations within the AFP in recent times has been how to make these vehicles more attractive to used buyers when they enter the remarketing cycle.
A development that would help is the creation of a standardised battery health check to give used buyers a high degree of reassurance that the most expensive component on their car is in good condition and unlikely to fail. Work on this is currently underway at a UK government and international level, and we hope to see concrete developments soon.
8. Decoding which new entrants are here to stay
Over the last year or two, more new entrants to the UK market have arrived than at probably any time before, with the majority coming from China, a development that has created a high degree of interest within the AFP.
So far, fleets appear cautiously receptive to these companies and their models, even though the sheer number of these new manufacturers and their often broadly indistinguishable mid-size electric SUVs mean that it can be difficult to form opinions about them individually. Also, some fleets have highlighted perceived security risks.
What we expect to see over the next few years is a process where a handful of companies emerge from this pack as substantial players in fleet terms, offering not just competent, well-priced vehicles but an understanding of our sector’s needs. The task facing fleets in the meantime is to work out which companies are here to stay – no-one wants to be stuck with cars and vans from a manufacturer who suddenly withdraws from the UK.
9. Solving the skills shortage affecting fleets
Skills shortages are affecting fleets in two key areas. We have been highlighting for some time how a generation of older fleet managers will be heading towards retirement in the next few years and that not enough new people are coming through the ranks to replace them. The AFP has been working to tackle this problem through initiatives such as promoting our AFP Fleet Academy and progress has been made in higher training numbers. However, while there are some excellent young fleet managers around, there still probably aren’t enough to meet future demand and we hope to see further progress. Also, we are seeing some progress in our efforts to introduce a fleet apprenticeship and hope that 2025 will see us move closer towards this goal.
The second issue is around the maintenance and repair of vehicles. Technicians with the right skills are in short supply and this affects fleets every day, often contributing to already historically high vehicle-off-road times. Much of this situation is being caused by electrification and it appears to be a problem that won’t be resolved quickly.
A new Public Sector Fleet Operator Working Group is being launched by the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP) and will meet for the first time in January.
Led by AFP board member and national fleet manager at National Highways, Martin Edgecox, it is intended to provide an opportunity to discuss the particular concerns facing public sector fleet management.
He said: “Everyone working in public sector fleet management faces quite specific challenges and having a forum to share best practice and raise issues among our peers promises to be very valuable.
“Initial interest has been very high and we’re expecting to have around thirty of the UK’s leading public sector fleets attending the initial meeting, as well as presentations from BYD and Enterprise Rent-a-Car.”
The new group plans to meet four times a year and any member of the AFP involved in the operation of a public sector fleet can attend on request.
Martin said: “There will be several big challenges facing public sector fleets in 2025 but chief among them will be electrification – most publicly funded bodies have a target of completely electrifying by 2027 under the Greening Government environmental commitments – and ongoing budgetary pressures, especially in local government. We’re confident it will prove highly positive to tackle these and other issues in a collegiate manner within the group.”
Further details about the AFP Public Sector Group can be obtained by e-mailing [email protected].
Find out more about the first meeting here: https://www.theafp.co.uk/events/public-sector-fleet-operator-working-group/
You are invited to join us if you are not an AFP member. Find out more about our membership plans: https://www.theafp.co.uk/membership/
Any government help offered to the motor industry to help hit future Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate targets should consider electric van demand as well as supply, says the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP).
Chair Paul Hollick said that “flexibilities” reportedly under consideration by transport secretary Louise Haigh – such as allowing manufacturer factory emissions to be taken into account or including exported vehicles made in the UK in the tally – would do nothing to encourage van fleets to electrify.
Paul Hollick, AFP chair, said: “The Van Plan that we launched with the BVRLA and other parties a few months ago explained the demand issues that are behind slow electric van uptake – insufficient public and private charging infrastructure, regulatory barriers, and affordability and availability of suitable product.
“The problem with electric van sales is not so much that they are lower than expected, as seen in the electric car market, but that they appear to have stalled altogether around the 5% mark. Fleets are effectively refusing to buy them for practical reasons and forcing manufacturers to make increasing percentages of vehicles under the ZEV Mandate doesn’t solve that core problem.
“It’s positive that the government is reportedly in what it calls ‘listening’ mode but from reports of recent meetings, they appear to be approaching their rethink from the point of view of helping manufacturers offset limited demand rather than finding ways to dramatically encourage fleets to purchase. We think that creates an unsustainable situation.”
Paul said that only a step change in technology improving the range and payload issues with electric vans would resolve core fleet objections, so potential government action lay instead in areas such as infrastructure, regulation and financial incentives.
“Again, as mentioned in the Van Plan, we need to find ways of rapidly making more chargers offering cheap power available in more places and more accessible to vans, as well as resolving the ongoing issues around licencing and operation of 4.25 tonne vans. Improving these scenarios would potentially create at least some impetus.
“However, nothing changes the core fact that the rapid electrification of electric car fleets was largely powered by massive benefit in kind tax incentives. A similar carrot may be necessary for electric vans to generate the kind of momentum that the government wants to see. Businesses may need to be given a genuine financial benefit to offset the operational problems they experience around electric vans.
“We’re presently in a situation where it appears that many fleets, having found during the pandemic that they can practically extend replacement cycles by several years, are planning to hang on to existing diesel vans until the situation surrounding electric vans improves. Pushing more and more production volume into a market where that kind of attitude is present makes limited sense.”
Plans mooted by US president elect Donald Trump to impose huge tariffs on imported vehicles could have a direct impact on the UK fleet market, the Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP) is warning.
During his election campaign, he variously promised that tariffs of 100% or 200% would be imposed on all vehicles imported into the US, as well as 60% on all Chinese goods, which would directly affect electric vehicles (EVs) made in China.
Paul Hollick, AFP chair, said that, if implemented, any of these moves could have a dramatic effect on the global car and van market, especially for EVs.
“There seems to be some confusion whether these tariffs are actual plans by the Trump administration or some kind of gambit to negotiate more advantageous trade deals. However, tariffs at this kind of level would effectively make imported cars unsaleable in the US and, of course, there have also been sometimes substantial tariffs recently imposed in the EU.
“All of that production aimed at the US – especially large numbers of Chinese EVs – will inevitably make its way towards freer global markets, the UK being one. So far, the actions of new Chinese entrants have been quite measured but there will be a huge temptation to dump large numbers of cars and vans here at low prices, causing high levels of disruption.
“Quite what the effect of all of this might be is difficult to say. At the extremes, our government might decide that domestic manufacturers need similar protection and introduce tariffs of its own, step back and let the market find its level, or any of a hundred points in-between. The future view looks quite murky.”
UK fleets would be left in a difficult position, he explained, with a domestic market that was tricky to read, and vehicle buying decisions that could be hugely risky.
“On one hand, having access to a supply of cheap Chinese EVs would arguably be good for fleets in their transition to net zero, and also provide a boost to the retail EV market. However, this is likely to come at the risk of stability and a volatile market is ultimately a bad one where, for example, forecasting accurate residual values becomes very difficult.”
Fleets would be watching Trump’s statements carefully over the next few weeks, Paul added.
“The sooner there is some clarity around the situation, the better. It is not a political point to say that what the president elect says and what he does are quite often two different things but it seems likely that, given the extent to which he has spoken about tariffs during his campaign, this is not an issue that is going to go away.
“The truth is that tariffs imposed by a major western economy of the scale being promised are almost unknown in modern times and it is difficult, if not impossible, to forecast the impact. However, it’s also true that some economists are making quite dire predictions. We await the outcome with some trepidation.”